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The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar will be 1.08 in 2024 and 1.06 in 2025, 2026 and 2027.Traders have reduced their bets on the easing policy of the European Central Bank, and it is now expected that the interest rate reduction will be less than 125 basis points in 2025.Russian Foreign Minister: It's not the first time that Ukrainian President refused to propose a ceasefire. On December 12, local time, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that Hungarian Foreign Minister Sergei Jardot had spoken with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and told Ukrainian President Zelensky that he had rejected the Hungarian proposal for a temporary ceasefire and an exchange of prisoners of war in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Lavrov said that this is not the first time that the Ukrainian authorities rejected the relevant suggestions made by other countries after releasing their own signals. Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said on the 11th local time that Ukrainian President Zelensky explicitly rejected the proposal of a ceasefire on December 25th. "Hungary's rotating presidency of the European Union has come to an end. We have made the latest efforts for peace and proposed a ceasefire on December 25th and a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war. Zelensky explicitly rejected and ruled out this possibility ".

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)Trump rang the opening bell at the NYSE, and US President-elect Donald Trump rang the opening bell at the new york Stock Exchange on Thursday. On that day, he was named "Person of the Year" twice by Time magazine. It is reported that he is the first president-elect to "ring the bell" on the New York Stock Exchange after Ronald Reagan.Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1%, popular Chinese stock Yum! China rose by 2.8%, bilibili and Baidu rose by over 1.2%, Ali, New Oriental, Ideality, Pinduoduo and Netease rose by at most 1%, and YINN rose by 1.6%.

Sullivan, US National Security Adviser: I have had a good discussion with my successor to ensure a smooth handover.The Dow opened up 0.04%, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% and Adobe fell 10.4%, and the fiscal year performance guidance fell short of expectations. General Dynamics fell 2.8% and was bearish by institutions. Uber rose by 3.5%, and its volume dropped by nearly 6% yesterday. CFO said that the mobile business will grow steadily. Jinshan Cloud rose 2.5%, and UBS sharply raised its target price to $12.5.US Secretary of State Blinken: Turkish interests in Syria focus on combating terrorism; Key external participants should not trigger new conflicts.